POLIBIZ – Donald Trump’s organizing big rallies in Colorado and California on 11th and 12th Oct respectively and planning for another one in New York City are surprising moves to observers. The chance for him to win these states is low, so what are the implications of his decision to do so?
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| AI picture of Donald Trump and Elon Musk |
In both elections 2016 and 2020, Trump lost these three states to his opponents to high margins, with Colorado at -13.8% to Joe Biden in 2020 and -8.6% to Hillary Clinton in 2016, California at -29.2% in 2020 and -30.1 % in 2016, New York at -23.1% in 2020 and -22.49% in 2016. Considering the high losing margin and the historical political leaning of these states, it’s hard to find any campaign event or effort or strategy that can fundamentally flip them into red. However, Trump may have some other goals in mind.
A victory in both popular votes and electoral votes
In 2016, although Trump won the election, he lost nearly 3 million popular votes to Hillary. In the current election, according to latest polls, despite the race is found tight in battleground states, Trump is usually behind Harris 2.5% nationally.
There’s a out-lout call from Democrats to abolish the electoral votes system, since they probably believe that no Republican presidential candidate ever can win popular votes.
Maybe, Trump is aiming for a victory with popular votes also. The lucrative soil to exploit popular votes is blue states, especially California with 22.3 million registered voters as of 6th Sept 2024. Just a small shift in these States can bring about hundred thousands of popular votes for Trump.
A commitment to expand Republican camp
Despite his “landslide defeat” at the blue wall states, Trump still has a great number of supporters there, for example, Trump had more than 6 million voters in California in 2020. Trump’s show-up in California just sent a clear message to his voters that they are not ignored, not forgotten and they should keep fighting for their beliefs.
Besides, to maintain and accelerate the trend of more voters identifying themselves as Republican rather than Democrat, red states and blue states should be treated equally in terms of campaigning.
Unlike Kamala Harris who has to rely on other giants to shoulder her burdening weight of incompetency, Trump has to shoulder the others, including Republican candidates for positions in the Senate, the House and the state governments.
A opportunity to convey exclusive messages to the whole nation
A rally in a specific state normally has the effect beyond its boundaries. Mainstream media may not fully cover a rally, but social media do. Each state has its own exclusive features and may not share the same with other states. Trump may intend to warn “the wildfire there can spread to your state at any time”.
In Colorado, Trump highlighted the alarming insecurity and society chaos caused by foreign gangs and criminal originating from the illegal immigrants influx facilitated by Biden-Harris Administration. It was at this rally that Trump detailed his deportation plan called “Operation Aurora” at federal level, in which ICE, Border Patrol and law enforcement forces shall be mobilized to track down, hunt down and deport criminal gangs.
Trump also floated the idea of using an 18th-century law, specifically the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, as part of a strategy for mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. If found effectively and validly, the old law could help Trump mobilize the army into the deportation efforts, and hearings would essentially skipped in most cases. Trump even called for death penalties applied to illegal immigrants committing murders on American citizens.
In California, besides the matter of energy prices and the devastating green economy agenda of Biden-Harris, Trump emphasized on the necessity of restoring the masculinity in the American military. His ad shown at rally portrayed how the elite strength of the American army in the battlefield has been deteriorated into queer dance on social platforms.
In New York, it’s in the future tense. Let’s wait and see!
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