EU Brussels Summit on 6th March 2025 basically failed to agree on a joint position to substantially continue their support for Ukraine, firstly because they did not intend to use their pocket money for the “aid” and secondly some items of their agenda seemed to be too-early-so- too- risky.
RELATED
|
There have been no reports of the EU leaders discussing on how much the EU Commission and each member states would share their parts in a new aid package to Ukraine. Instead, they primarily debated on whether to use/confiscate some $227 billion in frozen Russian assets that have been held in Europe’s financial system since the start of the Ukraine war.
According to New York Post, so far, around $50 billion in assistance has been given to Ukraine using the accumulating interest on Russia’s frozen assets by the G7 group of nations.
Ukraine President Zelenskyy was successful in rallying some neighbor countries, such as Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to call for the seizing of Russia’s money to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, and especially for an emergency aid at this moment when the USA paused all of its military aid.
However, Germany, France and Belgium warned of legal and financial consequences. "Countries calling for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets should be aware of the economic risks. This could shock the global financial system.", said Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever.
Any Russia–Ukraine Peace Deal in the future would certainly involve the handling of Russian frozen assets, therefore any touch on these assets at this stage would make the future peace talks become complicated, and even worse, someone would have to compensate for what they had confiscated.
Also, “pouring more military aids, sending own troops” and “proposing for a temporary truce” are conflicting agendas to each other, and the former would undermine or eliminate the later. It would be hard for Russia to believe in the honesty of any truce proposal and accept it if the other war party(ies) is rallying more forces.
In general, the EU seems to be still indecisive about which path to take: to rally all forces to defeat Russia, or to start the peace negotiations immediately.
According to AI Gok, for 2023, the most recent year with comprehensive data, Eurostat reports the following government deficit-to-GDP ratios:
- Germany: Recorded a deficit of -2.6% of GDP. As the EU’s largest economy, with a GDP of approximately €4.5 trillion, this translates to a deficit of about €117 billion. Germany’s fiscal discipline is notable, though it still exceeds the EU Stability and Growth Pact’s 3% threshold slightly.
- France: Had a deficit of -5.5% of GDP. With a GDP of around €2.8 trillion, this equates to roughly €154 billion. France consistently runs higher deficits, reflecting its significant public spending.
- Italy: Posted a deficit of -7.2% of GDP, the highest among these countries. With a GDP of about €2.1 trillion, this amounts to approximately €151 billion. Italy’s large deficit is tied to its substantial debt burden and economic challenges.
- Spain: Recorded a deficit of -3.6% of GDP. With a GDP of around €1.5 trillion, this is about €54 billion. Spain has reduced its deficit since the post-pandemic peak but remains above the EU’s 3% limit.
- Poland: Had a deficit of -5.1% of GDP. With a GDP of roughly €0.8 trillion, this translates to about €41 billion. Poland’s deficit reflects increased spending, partly due to regional security concerns.
Across the EU as a whole, the average government deficit was -3.5% of GDP in 2023, up from -3.2% in 2022, amounting to approximately €600 billion against a total EU GDP of €17.2 trillion. Among the biggest economies, Italy and France stand out with deficits well above the EU average and the 3% threshold set by the Stability and Growth Pact, while Germany and Spain are closer to or just over that limit. Poland sits in the middle of this group.These numbers are based on Eurostat’s October 2024 release, reflecting data reported by EU member states.
