The Russia – Ukraine war expectedly to escalate after London Summit March 2025

The high-stake London Summit organized by the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, attended by most EU leaders and Canadian Prime Minister, Ukrainian President did not select a face among them to be the new intermediator for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine as some observers may expect. Instead, it was announced that Britain, France, and Ukraine have united on drafting a ceasefire proposal to be presented directly to the United States. Besides, some of their plans would likely increase fire in the battlefields and make it more complicated for future talks with Russian President.

London Summit March 2025

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The future London joint proposal, likely to be presented to Donald Trump by the UK Prime Minister instead of Zelenskyy, would possibly incorporate an article requiring the USA to provide security guarantee in the event of peace. i.e. the USA shall bring troops to punish either side violating the peace deal. In other words, Europe wants the USA to pledge to become its peace protector.

However, it’s unclear how such a proposal would actually look like and how American President would react to it since it would likely require much more commitments, especially military ones, from the USA and/or NATO. It would be a question of “give-and-take” for the Trump Administration to tackle.

So far, Zelenskyy seems to be successful on his diplomatic path of rallying worldwide support to  pressure Donald Trump to offer a security guarantee before signing the rare minerals agreement. However, whether he can reach his destination is still unpredicted. After a meeting of clashes at the White House with Zelenskyy on 28th Feb 2025, American President already stated that “he [Zelenskyy] feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE”.

However, no ceasefire is going to be seen soon as Keir Starmer announced Britain is ready to “send boots on the ground and planes in the air to Ukraine”. Starmer also offered a loan of 2.2 billion British pounds ($2.8 billion) to support Ukraine, mostly to buy missiles, funded through the freezing of Russian assets. These actions would likely urge Russia to get ready for or mobilize more forces of its own and from its allies.